Fine Wine Is Showing Early Signs of Strength. Is This the Start of a Turn?
Over the past two years, the fine wine market has been navigating a steady and necessary reset. Prices have adjusted from elevated release levels, demand has become more selective, and many buyers have chosen to wait for clearer signals before re-entering the market.
At the same time, volatility across equities, crypto, and commodities has reshaped the broader investment landscape. Markets that moved with confidence are starting to reverse course dramatically as expectations around earnings, rates, and geopolitical risk shifts. Against that backdrop, fine wine has continued to move in measured steps, reflecting its own cycle rather than the turbulence seen elsewhere.
Recent data now suggests that conditions within the fine wine market may be settling. The changes are subtle, but they offer early signs of a potential upwards momentum.
A Calmer, More Balanced Landscape
From August to mid-November, the Liv-ex 1000 rose from 345.33 to 348.40, marking two consecutive months of growth for the first time since late 2022. The improvement is steady rather than dramatic, yet in a market that typically moves patiently, consistency can be more informative than magnitude.
Several key regions on Liv-ex recorded month-on-month gains in October, indicating that prices are beginning to settle at levels where buyers feel more comfortable engaging again. Fine wine rarely shifts direction in abrupt moves. It stabilizes gradually, then strengthens as supply and demand return to equilibrium.
These recent developments do not provide certainty, but they raise a constructive question. Are we starting to see the early signs of a healthier market?
Buyers Are Returning With More Conviction
Bid:offer ratios provide one of the clearest indicators of underlying sentiment, and the recent trend has been encouraging. The ratio moved from 0.30 in September to 0.41 in October and now sits at 0.52. Rising bid intensity suggests that buyers are becoming more active after a prolonged period of caution.
In fine wine, this shift often appears before headline index levels gain momentum. Higher bids do not guarantee future price appreciation, but they signal a market that is moving into a more constructive phase.
A Useful Counterpoint to Wider Market Movements
Recent performance across traditional markets helps frame why these signs matter. From June to November, gold rose 21.6 percent, and the S&P 500 gained a respectful 15.71 percent, although both experienced periods of sharp volatility. Bitcoin moved higher at points in the summer, but recent corrections make it the weakest performer, falling 9.74 percent from 1 June to 14 November.
The Liv-ex 1000 remained broadly stable over the same period, reflecting a market that has already absorbed much of its adjustment. Stability alone is not a catalyst, but in an environment where markets are reacting sharply to both good and bad news, it provides a valuable contrast.
Volatility underscores the difference. Over the six-month window, the Liv-ex 1000 recorded a monthly standard deviation of 0.53 percent. The S&P 500 reached 1.96 percent (almost 4x higher), gold registered 3.80 percent, and Bitcoin rose to 7.46 percent. Fine wine’s narrow trading range remains a defining characteristic, even during transitional periods.
Encouraging Signals, Expected to Unfold Gradually
The data now points toward a market that is becoming more orderly. Regional pricing is firmer, bid strength is rising, and the pace of declines has slowed. Each of these signals is constructive. Together, they create a healthier backdrop than we have seen for much of the past two years.
Fine wine tends to strengthen through consistency rather than acceleration. When conditions improve, momentum builds gradually, supported by scarcity, long-term consumption, and renewed collector engagement. The signs we are seeing now align with that pattern. They are early indications, not conclusions, but they support the view that the market is moving in a more positive direction.
What Investors Should Watch Next
- Bid momentum. Sustained strength in bids often precedes firmer pricing.
- Regional alignment. Broader participation across key regions usually supports stability.
- Liquidity trends. Higher trading volumes typically arrive before more durable strength.
- Macro spill over. Continued volatility in equities or crypto may support flows into lower-variance assets.
Conclusion
Fine wine does not signal change through sudden moves. It signals through steadiness, balance, and the slow return of confidence. The recent pattern of firmer pricing and increasing engagement prompts a fair question. Are these the first indications of the market finding firmer footing?
The next few months will offer greater clarity, but the direction of travel is more encouraging than it has been in some time.
